Polls show 120 seats up for grabs as Arab parties seek leverage in Israeli election

The Knesset election scheduled for Tuesday is drawing intense scrutiny across the Middle East, with regional observers focusing on the potential for a fragmented parliament that could leave the current leadership in a caretaker capacity. With neither major political bloc guaranteed a majority, the performance of Arab-led parties is viewed as a decisive factor in determining the next government.

Egyptian television network Alghad TV featured remarks from Hadash politician Shadi Shweiri on Sunday, who described the vote as a critical moment for Arab citizens to advance national demands. Shweiri argued that the right to vote was a condition of Israel's 1948 entry into the United Nations rather than an act of goodwill. He told Arab viewers that they are choosing "between the bad and the worse," accusing the current government of racism and urging support for candidates willing to halt military operations.

In Tehran, the reaction has been mixed. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei stated at a Monday press conference that the election outcome "makes no difference to us." He characterized the contest as competition between "different gangs" to commit more evil, suggesting the identity of the new leader is secondary to the regime's actions. Despite this dismissal, Iranian state media, including Tasnim News Agency, have published multiple polls analyzing Likud's chances of victory.

Analysis from London-based Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, which is owned by Qatar’s Fadaat Media, warned of a potential political stalemate. A piece by Beirut Hammoud framed the election as occurring after three years of conflict, noting declining international support for Israel. She argued that opposition leaders differ from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu only in their methods, describing the current administration as a "government of ruin." Meanwhile, Lebanon's pro-Hezbollah outlet Al-Khanadeq alleged that Netanyahu’s campaign is portraying the Arab vote as a liability to sway the "soft right" electorate.

The Al-Khanadeq report pointed to AI-generated campaign material showing Gadi Eisenkot alongside Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas. The analysis claimed these visuals are designed to make Jewish voters hesitant about a government based on Arab partnership. It also cited efforts by the Central Elections Committee to disqualify Arab-majority parties and the deployment of 2,000 activists to deter voter turnout.

Palestinian news site Al Quds noted the timing of the Israeli election alongside the United States midterms. Dr. Ahmed Youseff, a former senior adviser to Ismail Haniyeh, wrote that an Eisenkot victory could reopen diplomatic channels and force accountability for security failures. He argued that the combined results of both elections could reshape the region by curbing confrontation and empowering congressional oversight.