Poll shows Democrats lead House races, but Senate race remains tight

Democrats hold an 8-point advantage over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, according to a new poll released by NPR, PBS News, and Marist. The data suggests the party is favored to gain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

The survey was conducted as the midterm election approaches. It found that President Trump’s approval rating stands at 40 percent. This figure represents a slight improvement in his standing. However, the poll indicates the path to a majority in the Senate remains uncertain.

Financial pressure is a driving force in the election. One in three Americans said they face financial hardships. Four in 10 respondents told pollsters that their personal finances are worsening. For Democrats and independents, preserving democracy is a key concern. Among supporters of the MAGA movement, immigration ranks as the top issue.

Domenico Montanaro, a reporter for NPR, noted that while a Democratic loss in the House seems unlikely, the Senate remains a toss-up. He warned that patience will be crucial for voters and officials alike. It is unlikely that winners in many races will be clear by election night. This delay is expected in close elections where vote counting takes time.

In related election news, a federal judge is hearing arguments today in a bid by the Trump administration. The administration seeks to compel California to set aside ballots from voters it alleges may not be citizens. This legal move follows a decision last night by an appeals court to decline the administration’s request to intervene directly.

Yesterday, President Trump announced a $1 million reward for tips on voter fraud that lead to a conviction. The president has claimed fraud in every election he has participated in. Eric McDaniel, another NPR reporter, said Democrats and election officials are preparing for similar accusations. McDaniel noted that credible evidence of voter fraud large enough to affect election outcomes in the U.S. has never been found.

Meanwhile, Shana Bautista, head of global intelligence and investigations at Polymarket, said the platform has investigated dozens of bets on its prediction markets concerning the midterms. The company is reviewing these transactions as the election date nears.

In Israel, citizens are voting today in an election that will shape the country’s future. This is the first time since the Hamas attacks on Oct. 7, 2023, that Israelis can choose their leaders. Voters will decide whether to keep Benjamin Netanyahu, the far-right prime minister, or replace him with Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief.

Ruth Sherlock, an NPR correspondent, reported that high voter turnout is expected. Many Israelis believe this is a critical vote for the country’s future. Some voters want an investigation into the Oct. 7 attacks, which Netanyahu has blocked. The vote count could continue for days, and the prime minister will not be determined until after weeks of negotiations between parties.