Arab parties win 17 seats in Israel, forcing new coalition math

Palestinian parties are projected to win 17 to 18 seats in Israel's upcoming Knesset, a sharp increase from the previous 10. This shift forces the mainstream opposition to choose between partnering with Arab Israeli representatives or risking a return to power for Benjamin Netanyahu.

Exit polls from Tuesday's election gave a narrow lead to the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot over Netanyahu's governing coalition. However, Likud may still emerge as the strongest single party. If these numbers hold, President Isaac Herzog will have discretion in choosing who forms a government first. A six-week window exists for each candidate to secure a majority before the challenge moves to the next option. During this period, Netanyahu's coalition will remain in a caretaker role.

Eisenkot claims his bloc has the best chance of reaching a majority. To do so, his partners in the change bloc must negotiate with two Palestinian groupings: the Joint List and Ra'am. Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, is projected to hold seven seats. Abbas has previously served in a right-leaning government under Naftali Bennett, who is now a junior partner in Eisenkot's bloc. On Tuesday, Abbas stated his priority is to bring down Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, and Itamar Ben-Gvir.

The Joint List is projected to secure 10 or more seats, making it a more difficult partner. Eisenkot has set four conditions for talks: recognizing Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, accepting the values in the declaration of independence, accepting conscription for Palestinian citizens, and denouncing Hamas as a terrorist organization. Amjad Shbita, general secretary of Hadash, the largest faction in the Joint List, rejected these preconditions while votes were being counted.

Shbita argued that Eisenkot cannot impose terms. He stated, 'Laying down conditions won't work with the Joint List. We will negotiate as equals because we need each other.' If Eisenkot fails to reach an agreement with either group, he may attempt to govern as a minority. This would rely on informal vote-by-vote agreements to stay in power.

A minority government would be unstable and likely trigger another election. That scenario would allow Netanyahu to rally conservative Jewish voters behind his slogan, 'the Right or Palestine,' which rhymes in Hebrew. Netanyahu has staged political comebacks multiple times over three decades. One official from the Joint List spoke from a victory party in Nazareth in the early hours of Wednesday.

That official said the Zionist opposition must choose between supremacy and building democracy.