Toledo Rockets favored to crush Sacramento State in historic MAC matchup

Toledo enters Wednesday night's game as a 25.5-point favorite against Sacramento State. The two teams have never met before. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET at Hornet Stadium in Sacramento, California.

The Rockets are 6-2 with a 3-1 record in the Mid-American Conference. They are tied for third in the league. Their 2-1 road record shows they can win away from home. The Hornets are 2-7 overall and 1-5 in conference play. They sit in 12th place in the MAC. Their home record is 2-3 this season.

Toledo won 45-38 against Western Michigan on Oct. 24. Sacramento State beat Kent State 31-10 on Friday. The Rockets are 4-3 against the spread this season. The Hornets are 3-5 against the number.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulated this game 10,000 times. It projects a total of 52 combined points. That is under the 53.5 point line. The Under has hit in two of Toledo's last three games. It is 6-3 in Sacramento State's last nine matchups. The Hornets average 17 points per game, which ranks 12th in the MAC.

The model expects Toledo quarterback John Alan Richter to throw for more than 260 yards and two touchdowns. Richter has 2,244 passing yards and 17 touchdowns this season. Sacramento State running back Isaiah Ene is projected to rush for more than 50 yards and a score. Ene has 410 rushing yards on 77 carries for a 5.3 average. He has three rushing touchdowns on the year.

The computer identifies the Under as the value side 52% of the time. It notes that one side of the spread hits in more than 70% of simulations. SportsLine reported the model is on an 80-77 run on top-rated college football picks entering Week 10.