Pennsylvania races put House control at stake

A new poll from the Inquirer, New York Times, and Siena University indicates Democrats hold leads in two Pennsylvania House districts and a tie in another. This scenario would allow the Democratic Party to capture up to four seats, potentially flipping control of the U.S. House of Representatives. The survey was released as the final days of the campaign unfold.

In the Philadelphia suburbs, five-term Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick trails Democrat Bob Harvie in the 1st Congressional District. Fitzpatrick, who has courted labor unions despite his party affiliation, stood at a Teamsters rally in Northeast Philadelphia on Saturday. He told supporters they were the friends and family he wanted. Harvie, a Bucks County commissioner, held a town hall in Levittown that same day. He told voters the election is critical because the country has lost faith in its institutions.

The campaign has been expensive and contentious. Candidates have spent upwards of $121 million on advertising. President Donald Trump and Elon Musk have invested their political organizations in the races. In the Harrisburg-based 10th District, Republican Rep. Scott Perry continues to air an ad claiming Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson exposed herself to a neighbor's grandchild. Stelson's campaign calls the claim false and is considering legal action. Perry said in a statement that the ad shows a pattern of poor judgment.

In the Lehigh Valley-based 7th District, Democratic challenger Bob Brooks leads freshman Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie. The race has seen trade-offs in legal threats and canceled debates. Brooks, a union leader and retired firefighter, said he is numb to the attacks. He noted that his supporters enjoy the fire puns. Mackenzie's campaign argues Brooks avoided a debate to escape criticism. The district has seen $31.8 million in ad spending, making it the second most expensive congressional race in the state.

Gov. Josh Shapiro is running for reelection and is polling up by double digits in all four districts. He is scheduled to campaign with the Democratic candidates in the coming days. House Speaker Mike Johnson will join at least one Republican candidate on Wednesday. Trump, who has focused on other states, has no confirmed plans to visit Pennsylvania. Fitzpatrick said he would not rally with the president if he did come to the 1st District.

Voters in the 1st District are weighing Fitzpatrick's independent record against Harvie's momentum. One resident in Southampton said she plans to switch from Fitzpatrick to Harvie after reviewing his voting record. Fitzpatrick votes with Trump and the GOP about 70% of the time, the least among House Republicans. He has not received an endorsement from Trump, though a MAGA Inc. super PAC has spent at least $100,000 on his behalf.