CalRecycle Sets Plastic Reduction Baseline at 1.03 Million Tons

CalRecycle adopted a source reduction baseline of 1.03 million tons for single-use plastic in California on Monday, a figure that drastically lowers the state's future waste reduction mandates.

The new baseline is one-third of the 2.9 million tons estimated in a 2024 state report. It is also 20% lower than the industry's initial estimate of 1.29 million tons announced in June. This number determines the starting point for all future reduction targets under Senate Bill 54, the state's 2022 plastic law.

The adjustment changes the scale of required cuts by 2032. Producers are legally required to reduce single-use plastic sold in the state by 25%. Under the state's original estimate, this would have eliminated roughly 725,000 tons of plastic. With the new baseline, the total reduction drops to 250,000 tons.

Zoe Heller, director of CalRecycle, stated the new number reflects the best available information. She acknowledged that not all producers have reported or submitted accurate data. CalRecycle and the Circular Action Alliance, the industry body representing producers, will update the baseline annually until 2030. However, these updates will not affect the first reduction target due January 1, which now requires a cut of only 100,000 tons instead of the previously anticipated 290,000 tons.

Douglas McCauley, a professor of ocean science at UC Santa Barbara, noted that the report lacks detail on how the new number was calculated. The baseline relies on reporting from only half of the alliance's member companies. McCauley questioned whether the baseline might double in a future correction or if it simply excludes smaller producers. Companies with annual revenue under $1 million must register with the alliance but are excluded from the baseline calculations.

The report indicates that 222 billion single-use plastic components were produced, sold, or distributed in the state in 2023. This figure is more than double the alliance's June preliminary count of 108 billion items and exceeds the state's 2024 estimate of 189 billion items. The discrepancy between the high item count and the low tonnage remains unexplained in the document.

Kyle Meisterling, a project scientist at UC Santa Barbara, warned that the new numbers skew recycling rates. A 2025 state report estimated the recycling rate for high-density polyethylene, or HDPE, at 19%. Using the new baseline, that rate would appear to jump to 53%, even though the actual weight of recycled HDPE remains unchanged. The Circular Action Alliance did not respond to a request for comment.