AP Voter Poll: Young and Hispanic Voters Drive Democratic Gains

The Associated Press Voter Poll released on Nov. 4 indicates that Democratic candidates gained substantial ground among young, Hispanic, and lower-income voters in the 2026 midterms. The survey, which covered more than 100,000 voters across all 50 states, documents a reversal of trends seen in the 2024 presidential election. Democratic candidates secured stronger support from these key demographic groups, countering the shifts that favored President Donald Trump two years prior.

Voters under the age of 30 displayed a marked change in alignment. In the 2024 election, this group was roughly split between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. In the 2026 House races, approximately 70% of these young voters supported the Democratic candidate, while about 30% chose the Republican. This group constituted only about 10% of the total national electorate, which limited the overall impact of the shift. However, 60% of voters under 30 stated that opposing Trump was a primary reason for their vote, a higher figure than for older age groups.

Hispanic voters also moved away from the Republican Party. In 2024, roughly 40% of Hispanic voters supported Trump. In the 2026 local House races, only about one-third of this group backed the Republican candidate, while 60% voted for Democrats. This trend was evident in the Texas Senate race, where Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton. The poll showed Talarico supported by roughly 60% of Hispanic voters in that contest, compared to 30% for Paxton.

Support among Black voters, particularly Black men, returned to previous levels. In 2024, about one-quarter of Black men supported Trump. In the 2026 House races, that figure dropped to about one in ten. Overall, 90% of Black voters supported the Democratic House candidate, up from roughly 80% for Harris in 2024. In Georgia, 90% of Black men voted for Keisha Lance Bottoms, who became the first Black woman elected as governor. In Florida, Republican Byron Donalds, elected as the state's first Black governor, won support from about one-quarter of Black men, but only one in ten Black women.

Moderate voters, who cited economic hardship and a desire for congressional checks on the presidency, largely backed Democrats. About two-thirds of moderates supported the Democratic House candidate, an increase from the 60% who supported Harris in 2024. This support was critical in Senate races in Kansas, Iowa, and North Carolina. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton won about 70% of moderate voters, while in Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek won about two-thirds. In North Carolina, Democrat Roy Cooper won about three-quarters of this group.

Voters with a 2025 household income of less than $50,000 shifted toward Democrats after being evenly split in 2024. More than half of these voters chose the Democratic candidate in their local House race. This group, which makes up about 30% of all U.S. voters, cited cost of living as a key factor. About 60% of lower-income voters said the cost of living was crucial to their decision, compared to about half of those earning $50,000 or more.

The AP Voter Poll was conducted by SSRS for The Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, FOX News Media, NBC News, and Versant. The survey blended probability-based and non-probability-based interviews with registered voters. Data was collected from Oct. 19 to Nov. 3 in Alaska and from Oct. 22 to Nov. 3 in all other states. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is plus or minus 0.6 percentage points.