Florida Democrats Lead Early Vote Count Before Tuesday Ballots Open

Florida voters will head to polls Tuesday morning with a substantial portion of the state's electorate already having voted. As of Monday, 5.4 million of the state's 13.7 million registered voters had cast ballots through mail or early voting sites. This figure represents nearly 40 percent of the total electorate before a single precinct opens for the general day.

The early voting data shows a clear lead for Democrats. Approximately 49 percent of registered Democrats have already voted, totaling 2.03 million ballots. This group includes 1.2 million in-person early votes and 832,000 mail ballots. In comparison, 38.2 percent of registered Republicans have voted. That total comes from 1.5 million in-person early votes and nearly 679,000 mail ballots. Unaffiliated voters show a 31 percent turnout, with roughly 1.05 million ballots cast so far.

Nikki Fried, chair of the Florida Democratic Party, cited these numbers in a Monday fundraising email. She stated that Democrats are showing up at rates not seen in years across every county. Fried noted that maintaining this energy on Election Day would help the party retake the state. She was the last Democrat to win a statewide office, taking the agriculture commissioner seat in 2018.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds acknowledged the early numbers but emphasized a different strategy. Speaking on the Florida Unwired podcast, Donalds said he is proud of the party's efforts. He expects a large number of Republican voters to show up on Tuesday. He told listeners to stay focused as the state prepares for what he anticipates will be a surge in Election Day turnout.

The current early vote total of 5.4 million is high compared to recent midterms. It equals 69 percent of the total turnout from the 2022 midterm and 62 percent of the 2018 midterm turnout. Republicans have controlled the Florida Legislature since 1996 and the governor's mansion since 1999. They surpassed Democrats in total registered voters in 2021, holding a 1.5 million advantage today.

Polls will open at 7 a.m. and close at 7 p.m. county time. County officials plan to post early vote and mail-in totals about 30 minutes after polls close. The state Division of Elections will begin posting results after 8 p.m. This delay accounts for the 7 p.m. closing time in the Central Time Zone, which covers western Panhandle counties.

The 2022 midterm saw Republican turnout exceed Democratic turnout by about 600,000 votes. That historical context informs the current race, where Democrats currently hold the early voting lead despite their smaller registered voter base.